Three Elections, One Country

Three Elections, One Country / Yoani Sanchez
Translator: Unstated, Yoani Sanchez

What does the voice of Henrique Capriles sound like? A neighbor asked me
a few days ago. I didn't know whether to tell him it was high-pitched or
deep, soft or forceful, because the Cuban media is careful not to air
it. Instead, we only have the opportunity to hear the agitated shouts of
Hugo Chavez, the verbal attacks he throws at his young opponent.

A few days before the Venezuelan elections, our official press has
closed ranks around the current occupant of the Miraflores Palace in
Caracas. The television commentators assure us that there will be a
landslide victory for the Socialist Party and celebrate in advance. But
that's just in front of the cameras; behind the cameras is nervousness,
not certainty.

Raul Castro's government has too much invested in the Venezuelan
elections on October 7. Much more than with the dismemberment of the
USSR and the conversion of the Eastern European countries. On that
occasion, the loss of the Soviet subsidies and the political allies of
the socialist bloc submerged the country into a profound material and
diplomatic crisis. But within the country the control exercised by Fidel
Catro's regime had the strength — and stubbornness — to withstand the blow.

Today, more than two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, little
remains of the fervor, the stubborn will, with which we faced what Fidel
Castro called The Special Period, a crises presented to us as a
necessary sacrifice, a test of ideological fortitude.

There are so many similarities and yet profound differences. The loss of
the economic underpinnings from the Kremlin forced Fidel Castro to allow
self-employment, the renting of houses, the development of farmers
markets, foreign investment, and opening of the Island to international
tourism and dollarization.

However, it was precisely the rise to power of Hugo Chavez in 1999 that
was the key element to the walking back of these reforms. With a
powerful and nearby partner lavishly giving us oil, why continue to
deepen the process of relaxations that resulted in a loss of power.

Raul Castro, years later, would retake the path of economic openings
that his brother had retracted. This time he would be supported by the
Venezuelan subsidy, which has enabled him to implement the few changes
slowly in a lukewarm fashion. Perhaps there was a moment when he
believed that offering farmers the ability to lease land in usufruct, or
expanding licenses for self-employment, would allow Cuba to take its
first steps towards economic independence.

Or maybe he always knew that this type of dependency, once established,
ends up becoming a chronic situation. More than a circumstance, the need
for external subsidy is the core of the Castro regime, the direct result
of its inability to successfully manage the national economy.

If, on Sunday, Venezuelans reelect Hugo Chavez as president, Raul's
regime will get some breathing room. But the great polarization in Simon
Bolivar's fatherland will make it more difficult to publicly sustain the
maintenance of Cuba. It will no longer be the same.

On top of that, the obvious physical collapse or the expected death of
Fidel Castro is an open secret throughout the whole country. His last
brief and delirious "Reflections" column was published in the newspaper
on June 19. Some say they are only waiting for the end of the Venezuelan
elections to put an announcement date on his obituary.

The government in Havana is approaching complicated months. Venezuela's
will be the first in a cycle of three elections that will influence, to
a greater or lesser extent, our national life. The presidential election
in the United States follows immediately in the list of electoral
processes that lie ahead. Mitt Romney has promised a heavy hand with the
Cuban authorities, but Barack Obama can also be very caustic to the
Cuban system if he deepens his policy of family, academic and cultural
approaches.

The first five-year term of Raul Castro will end in February 2013. Few
are betting that he's thinking of retiring to make way for a younger
figure. These elections, the third that await us in the coming months,
are also the last in importance and in generating expectations. The
process of nominating People's Power delegates and installing them in
the National Assembly has already begun, and this body will approve the
nominations to the Council of State.

If the Venezuelan results will decide whether we are granted billions in
subsidies, and our relationship with our powerful neighbor to the north
is in play in those elections, the Cuban elections smell strongly of a
play whose script is already written. We don't even need surveys or
voter polls. There is no possibility of a surprise.

4 October 2012

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