Raul Castro bets on Cuban travel amid reforms

Posted on Sunday, 10.21.12

Raul Castro bets on Cuban travel amid reforms
By PETER ORSI
Associated Press

HAVANA -- Cuba seems to be betting that its decision to allow most of
its citizens to travel abroad freely will be as good for its economy as
it is for its public relations.

The announcement comes as the communist island nation carries out a
cautious, limited free market experiment to reform Cuba's inefficient
economy, which includes a plan to fire 1 million state workers and allow
more entrepreneurship.

Cuba's leaders seem confident that lifting exit visa requirements will
not produce an embarrassing exodus. Instead, experts say, a controlled
migration might ease the pain of its economic overhaul by providing an
outlet for the anticipated surge in unemployed workers and an investment
in human capital if Cubans return home with experience in market economies.

The biggest problem with Cuba's layoff plan, "is that there are not
enough jobs available in the private sector to absorb these workers,"
said Paolo Spadoni, a political scientist at Augusta State University in
Georgia. "Thus, some of these workers will either leave for good or work
temporarily abroad and return to Cuba, in both cases increasing the
amount of remittances to the island."

Other Communist-run countries saw similar changes to travel restrictions
as reform reshaped their societies. Vietnam did away with its exit and
entry visa requirements in 1997, and there are now no limits on citizens
traveling overseas except for dissidents deemed a threat to national
security.

Citizens of the Soviet Union also once had to go through a long,
complicated procedure to leave, but exit visas were formally scrapped in
1993 after the Soviet bloc's dissolution. Russians now must still apply
for foreign travel passports, but there are few restrictions on those
except for high-ranking intelligence and military officers and employees
involved in top-secret defense projects.

Cuba's highly educated but low-paid professionals and academics seem
ripe to take off, lured overseas by lucrative jobs after decades of
living in a state-dominated economy with virtually no independent
industry and an antiquated technological infrastructure.

Under the new provisions taking effect in January, Cubans may stay
abroad for two years before forfeiting full citizenship rights;
previously the limit was 11 months. Another provision allows Cubans who
have emigrated for good the opportunity to apply to return.

Those changes could make it easier for islanders to study or work
abroad, returning in theory as valuable contributors to Castro's
evolving hybrid economy.

"We are facing something new, a positive step in that doors have been
opened in terms of job-training and -formation for the Cuban labor
force," said Arturo Lopez-Levy, a Cuban economist who lectures at the
University of Denver. "Yes, the potential for migration is going to
increase, but in an optimal scenario for Cuban policy, without reaching
destabilizing levels."

But some might call it an act of faith to expect that a Cuban
professional, who earns an average of about $20 a month, would be filled
with sufficient revolutionary fervor to return from a high-paid job in
Europe.

And whether the new Cuban economy will take off remains a key question.

Raul Castro has decentralized industries, expanded private
entrepreneurship and farming, legalized home and car sales and is about
to enter an experimental phase with medium-size cooperative businesses.

But the state retains a dominant role in all key sectors, and analysts
say today's entrepreneurial landscape dotted with what some have dubbed
"bonsai businesses" is hardly enough to rescue the economy.

"You let them go for a couple of years ... always under control, and
then they come home with a little money saved up," said Oscar Espinosa
Chepe, a former government economist turned dissident. "Those who do
come back, I don't think they'll bring much with them."

However, the remittances from those who stay abroad may make Castro's
gamble worthwhile.

While economic migration more typically involves low-skilled labor, in
recent years professionals have made up 12 percent of Cuba's outward
flow, according to a 2010 study by Havana University historian and
sociologist Antonio Aja Diaz.

Money sent home by Cubans living overseas, overwhelmingly in the United
States, is already among the island's most important sources of hard
currency and growing thanks to the relaxation of hard caps on cash
transfers under President Barack Obama.

Such remittances hit nearly $2.3 billion last year, up from around $1
billion a decade ago, according to a March estimate by U.S.-based
research and consulting firm The Havana Consulting Group.

The exit visa decision has been welcomed by Cubans, many of whom don't
want to abandon the country and are simply excited they will be able to
travel as tourists or to visit family, or just happy to see a longtime
symbol of the restrictions on their civil liberties end.

The move has been a public relations boost for the Communist government,
giving it another piece of ammunition against critics of its human
rights record.

"It is a transcendental measure that destroys false symbols that have
been used against us," Omar Valino, vice president of Cuba's writers and
artists' union, was quoted as saying by the state-run newspaper Juventud
Rebelde.

Officials have been promising travel reforms since the economic changes
were first announced, but until Tuesday had said only that it was under
"study."

Some say the timing is simply in keeping with Castro's cautious pace -
"without pause but without haste" is the pragmatic president's mantra
for reform - to keep change from veering out of control.

Others point to increased contacts with a growing community of moderate
exiles seeking varying levels of reengagement with their homeland.

It's also suggestive that the reform was announced just a week after
ally Hugo Chavez's re-election in Venezuela ensured a continued flow of
subsidized oil from that country, and less than a month before U.S.
presidential elections.

"The migratory reform has been ready for a while, and they were going to
open when it was politically convenient to them," Lopez-Levy said.
"There's this idea of doing these things before the (U.S.) election to
clear up any doubts: 'This has nothing to do with what happens in
November, it has to do with other factors.'"

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Associated Press writers Andrea Rodriguez in Havana, Tran Van Minh in
Hanoi, Vietnam, and Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow contributed to this report.

Peter Orsi on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/Peter-Orsi

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/21/v-fullstory/3060121/raul-castro-bets-on-cuban-travel.html