Cuba stands to benefit as Russia and the United States vie for its attention

Cuba stands to benefit as Russia and the United States vie for its attention
By Nick Miroff October 23

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Raul Castro attend
a ceremony at the Mausoleum of the Soviet Internationalist Soldier in
Havana on July 11, 2014. (Ladyrene Perez/Cubadebate via AP)
HAVANA — During another October 53 years ago, a young Fidel Castro
played Cuba off the world's two superpowers. The Soviets installed nukes
on the island, the Americans demanded their removal, and Castro ended up
with a U.S. promise not to invade, assuring the survival of his Cuban
revolution.

This week it seemed like the Khrushchev era all over again, minus the
scary red buttons. Moscow signed off on $1.4 billion in loans for a
massive upgrade at two Cuban power plants. Russian cultural officials
announced plans to build an art museum in the center of Havana. And
Cuba's state media cheered Russian airstrikes in Syria, depicting the
intervention as a decisive, overdue effort to crush the Islamic State
and end the civil war.

Opponents of Obama's new engagement policy with Havana say there's more,
alleging that Cuban troops have joined the fight in Syria. Fox News and
U.S. lawmakers echoed those claims last week, but State Department and
Pentagon officials said they could not confirm them. Cuba's Foreign
Ministry called the allegations "unfounded and irresponsible."

What's undeniable, though, is that Cuba, distressed damsel of the
Caribbean, stands to benefit once more with two world powers wooing it.

Putting aside the claims about Cuban troops in Putin's ranks, Havana's
new love for Russia probably has more to do with the shaky future of its
key ally and patron, Venezuela. Hugo Chavez's death in 2013 and the
failures of his successor, Nicolás Maduro, have left the Castro
government looking to diversify trade relations and find new
benefactors. Or old ones.

The United States is a key part of Cuba's diversification strategy, but
communist officials are wary of engaging too fast with American
businesses and American influences. And they reiterated this week that
they've learned painful economic lessons about eggs and baskets.

[U.S. officials are frustrated by lack of progress in trade with Cuba]

"Under no circumstances will we go back to depending on a single trade
partner, even if today it seems possible that in a not-too-distant
future the economic, commercial and financial blockade against my
country will end," Cuban foreign trade minister Rodrigo Malmierca said
this week, referring to U.S. sanctions that entered their 56th year Monday.

Russia fits into the plan, along with China, Europe and emerging trade
partners such as Saudi Arabia, Angola and Qatar, where Cuba is sending
doctors and medical personnel in exchange for much-needed hard currency.


As for warming ties to Putin, former Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray
said: "It's a Russian thing."

"The Russians are obviously throwing their weight around, and Cuba is a
place where they had influence and still have influence," Alzugaray
said. "They have influence with the military, which uses Russian
military hardware, and they have economic influence."

A strong, muscular Russia also fits Cuba's broader geopolitical vision,
he added.

"Cuba is interested in a multipolar world, not a unipolar world, so it's
in Cuba's interest for Russia to continue doing what it's doing."

Vladimir Putin visited the island in July 2014, six months before
President Obama and Raúl Castro announced their deal to reestablish
relations. He pledged new infrastructure projects and wiped the books of
nearly all of Cuba's $35 billion in Soviet-era debt. The biggest impasse
to warmer Cuba-Russia ties was gone.

The new $1.4 billion will finance the installation of four 200-megawatt
thermoelectric stations. Russia also pledged $100 million to modernize
and expand a Cuban steel mill, among other projects.

"The Cuban economy is in dire straits," said Christopher Sabatini, a
Latin America scholar at Columbia University. "Seeking investment and
support from other sources doesn't have to be insidious — it can just be
good statecraft. Before jumping to any paranoid conclusions, the
question is what, if anything, the Russians are getting in return that
constitutes a threat."

Putin has denied reports last year that he cut a deal to reopen a
massive spy base Russia closed in Cuba in 2001, saying his country "can
meet its defense needs without this component." Russian military
officials also say they have no plans to establish bases in Latin
America but are looking to expand "military and military-technical"
cooperation in several countries, including Cuba.

A large Russian naval intelligence ship docked in Havana in plain
sight during a round of talks with U.S. officials in January, one of
several appearances in the city's harbor this year.

The United States needs to be vigilant about the Russian presence but
not alarmist, said Carl Meacham, Americas director at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in D.C.


There's also good reason to be skeptical that the aid projects in Cuba
will actually happen, he added.

"The Russian economy is suffering," Meacham said. "So there's a public
value for Putin in doing this, in the ability to project power and
authority in the U.S. sphere of influence, but his ability to make do on
these promises is at least questionable."

And for Cuba, maintaining Russia ties sends a clear signal that Havana
isn't going to reorient its entire foreign policy to suit Washington,
especially with the U.S. trade embargo still in place.

"For Cuba, it's a way of saying to the United States: Don't take us for
granted, we still reserve right to maintain these alliances we've had,
and we're not just going to give in to you just because you've
demonstrated a willingness to normalize relations," Meacham said.

Nick Miroff is a Latin America correspondent for The Post, roaming from
the U.S.-Mexico borderlands to South America's southern cone. He has
been a staff writer since 2006.

Source: Cuba stands to benefit as Russia and the United States vie for
its attention - The Washington Post -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/10/23/cubas-sweet-spot-between-moscow-and-washington/