Carlos Perez Llana
From: The Australian
May 16, 2011 12:00AM
RAUL Castro's consolidation of his position as successor to his brother,
Fidel, confirms that his Cuba will give the military domestic hegemony,
which makes any serious political or economic opening in the near future
seemingly impossible.
The Cuban Communist Party's recent Sixth Congress reflected this,
offering little new and rehashing a lot of the old.
Since ill health forced Fidel Castro to retire from Cuba's leadership,
Raul has opened the doors to the military and pushed out even those
civilians who had been his brother's trusted associates.
While Fidel wrote doctrinaire articles in the official press, the armed
forces took over politics and production.
Fidel's appearance at the party's congress - an event full of political
significance because he has participated only rarely in public events
since becoming sick in 2006 - seemed to confirm his support for this
outcome. We now know that the congress had been put off for 14 years,
owing to deep divisions among Cuban leaders.
The civilian group that was ousted wanted to adapt the "Chinese model"
of gradual economic reforms initiated by the party. Raul and his
military cronies, however, cornered Fidel and imposed their criteria.
In Asian communism as practised in China and Vietnam, the party
leadership rotates periodically, and a civilian leadership controls the
military. Systemic nepotism in the top political and military leadership
exists only in North Korea.
By contrast, Cuba's new Raulist political structure takes its
inspiration from the purest tradition of Latin American military
caudillismo, using communist ideology pragmatically.
The model is clearly revealed in the nature of Raul's proposed reforms.
The economy's most dynamic industries, mining and tourism, are reserved
for the military, which manages them in a business-like, profit-seeking way.
Only in these privileged sectors can some reforms be seen. The "new
class" that populates them does not demonise foreign capital. Indeed,
there are talks centred on debt, with some creditors interested in the
mechanics of capitalisation.
For the rest of the economy, the party's position recalls the famous
line from Lampedusa's The Leopard: "something must change so that
everything else can remain the same". The sale of buildings and vehicles
will be legalised and self-employment authorised, mainly in the service
sector. But what fate awaits industries, lacking capital and forced to
pay taxes, that are driven into the market?
Nearly 1.5 million Cubans will never have a stake in the industries
controlled by the military bourgeoisie. Nor was the issue of land
ownership resolved: only a few plots will be leased in some form. As a
result, Cuba will continue to import a lot of food, most of it at a
price that the population cannot afford.
The Sixth Congress ignored questions of human rights. Neither freedom of
the press nor access to information was on the agenda, and the
opposition will continue to be ignored, its only options being
conditional freedom or exile.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, many believed that the Cuban regime
would take the road to reform, however grudgingly. But the democratic
transitions in eastern Europe made Fidel Castro wary, so the first
opportunity for a similar transition in Cuba was lost. Now an
opportunity to introduce young blood and new ideas has similarly been
missed: although the Sixth Congress adopted a 10-year limit for holding
office, the two people designated to succeed Raul Castro are both
octogenarians.
Cuba cannot remain isolated, dependent on Venezuelan petro-dollars and
penalised by America's ill-conceived trade embargo. Any realistic agenda
for change requires opening up to the world, along with ensuring full
freedom within the country. Unfortunately, the Sixth Congress
demonstrated that the Communist Party remains in denial about the
country's prospects and options.
Carlos Perez Llana is vice-president of the University of the 21st
Century in Cordoba, Argentina, and professor of international relations
at the University T. Di Tella in Buenos Aires
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