By Carlos Manuel Rodriguez - May 18, 2011 7:00 AM GMT+0200
Cuban deepwater exploration projects that will begin this year have a
high probability of success and may increase the island nation's oil
output by more than 500 percent, said Jorge Pinon, energy fellow at the
University of Miami Center for Hemispheric Policy.
If successful, the new round of exploration may lead to production of
200,000 to 300,000 barrels of oil a day, Pinon said in an interview
yesterday in La Jolla, California. Cuba imported 96,000 of oil a day in
2009 while it produced 47,500 barrels daily, according to a presentation
from Pinon.
"The probability of success in finding hydrocarbons is great," said
Pinon, a former head of BP Plc's operations in Latin America who
recently visited Cuba. The communist nation would own about 60 percent
of crude produced from projects resulting from the exploratory wells, he
said.
The exploration projects will be the first conducted in Cuba since 2004
and they may start as soon as September, when the rig Scarabeo 9 is
expected to arrive to the Caribbean island. The first project will be
headed by Madrid-based Repsol YPF SA (REP) and Statoil ASA (STL) will
also participate, Pinon said. The deepwater Cuban blocks to be explored
are located about 60 miles south of Florida, he said.
The blocks are part of 22 concessions awarded by the Cuban government to
foreign oil companies. In 2004, Repsol did not find enough oil in a
deepwater project to make it commercially viable.
"The fact that five years after the 2004 non-successful exploration,
Repsol and Statoil continue there is telling us there must be something
there," Pinon said. The next 18 months will be "key" for the exploration
projects, he said.
Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India's biggest energy explorer, Malaysia's
Petroliam Nasional Bhd., and Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela SA are
other companies that are involved in the seven upcoming exploratory
projects.
Optimistic Scenario
Under an optimistic scenario, Cuba may produce enough oil to meet its
own consumption needs, Pinon said.
The U.S. trade embargo on Cuba is a key reason why offshore drilling
hasn't developed in the communist island's waters, the Cuban government
has said. The embargo caps the amount of U.S. parts on any rig that may
operate in Cuba at 10 percent.
The Scarabeo 9 platform being built by Italy's Saipem SpA (SPM) is the
only rig that complies with the U.S. embargo limits, Pinon said.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Cuba's North Basin region
holds 4.6 billion barrels of oil, according to a 2004 report.
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