2016, Expect the Unexpected

2016, Expect the Unexpected / 14ymedio, Reinaldo Escobar
Posted on December 20, 2015

14ymedio, Reinaldo Escobar, Havana, 20 December 2015 –The current first
secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba turns 85 in 2016 and, if
re-elected at the Seventh Congress to be held in April, he will be
seated in an unacceptable precedent, because at that age it is only
appropriate to lead a circle of grandparents.

Although the First Party Conference, held in January 2012, did not
specify an age limit for a functionary to serve in a political or
governmental post, it did establish "limits with regards to term and
ages, according to the functions and complexity of each responsibility."

As they say in the movies, "it's nothing personal" against Raul Castro,
it's that the country doesn't need to re-experience the disruptions of
mid-2006, when ill health prevented the then "Maximum Leader" from
continuing to rule the nation.

In his speech at the Sixth Congress, Raul Castro warned that this would
probably be the last with the presence of the "historic generation." And
in the Seventh Congress that warning would be a source of major drama.
The risk now run by the octogenarians, is that the longer they delay in
passing the baton, the more probable an unexpected rupture.

It is hard to believe that the Communist Party of Cuba does not have a
single member under 65 (or even under 70), with sufficient capacity to
assume the leadership of the organization. Perhaps it is not just about
intellectual preparation, indispensible for a "correct application of
Marxist-Leninist theory to the revolutionary practice," nor the
experience accumulated in "direct work with the masses," nor should
there be a scarcity of virtues such as integrity, diligence, capacity
for teamwork, and others that are in demand in these cases. Most likely
it is a lack of confidence that the anointed one would want to maintain
continuity. It's enough to look at what Raul Castro himself has done
with the legacy of his brother to imagine the changes that would be
introduced by a man without so much ballast.

Obviously, the optimal would be the Communist Party renouncing its
constitutionally mandatory hegemony, and opening the opportunity to
other political tendencies, but that is another topic.

The year 2016 will be terminal for Raul Castro, at least according to
the Chinese horoscope, because on 8 February the Year of the Goat will
end, which is the sign under which he was born in 1931. Now begins the
Year of the Monkey, whose motto is, "I am the unexpected."

Source: 2016, Expect the Unexpected / 14ymedio, Reinaldo Escobar |
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