Will he be a Castro leader for the next generation?

Will he be a Castro leader for the next generation?
BY BRIAN LATELL BRIANSLATELL@GMAIL.COM
03/17/2015 5:17 PM 03/17/2015 5:17 PM

Scores of Castros of several generations populate that enormous Cuban
clan. Their wealth and influence are unrivaled and regardless of how the
political system evolves after Fidel and Raúl are gone, some descendants
are sure to loom as important political players. Raúl's daughter
Mariela, a member of the rubberstamp national assembly and gay rights
activist, has been the most obvious example.

But increasingly the leading next-generation contender is Alejandro
Castro Espín. Born in 1965, the only son of Raúl Castro and Vilma Espín,
his claim to inherited prominence is incomparable. His mother was Cuba's
de facto first lady and head of the women's federation until her death
in 2007. Tough and smart, for a period a communist party politburo
member, she formed an enduring alliance with Raúl.

Their son — in contrast to Fidel's numerous male heirs — has been
groomed for leadership roles. An Angola war veteran, Alejandro lost an
eye in a non-combat accident in 1986. At the University of Havana he
studied engineering but switched to international relations, earning an
advanced degree after completing a dissertation and publishing articles.
His book, Imperio del Terror, derived from them. It is a brooding,
300-page, anti-American screed that he is said to have researched for
about a decade.

A Ministry of Interior colonel, Alejandro has responsibility for
coordinating policy between the intelligence and security services and
the armed forces. With a thickening résumé as hard-line scholar,
itinerant regime spokesman, and close ally of his father, he is expected
to be promoted to brigadier general, possibly later this year.

Alejandro's ascent has been rapid, but only since his father became
president in 2008. It was a year later with the publication of his book
that he initially gained attention. It catalogues 50 years of what he
describes as American terrorism and aggression against Cuba.

In the dedication, for example, he singles out "the 3,478 compatriots
who perished and the 2,099 others physically incapacitated as a result
of state terrorism practiced against Cuba by American governments."

Recently issued in a new edition, and translated into several foreign
languages, the book has received scant publicity in the official Cuban
media. But Alejandro has hawked it aggressively abroad. In Moscow in
October 2012 he promoted the Russian translation, and in January made
multiple public appearances in Greece, discussing the Greek translation.

In Athens he was interviewed for local television at the foot of the
Acropolis. Sounding more like his uncle Fidel than his father, he
answered a few questions in endless monologues and with robust
self-confidence. In another interview he denied any interest in
succeeding his father, while failing, however, to mention Miguel Díaz
Canel, the first vice president Raúl has tapped to succeed him in early
2018.

In January Alejandro also traveled, with Raúl, to Costa Rica for a
conclave of Latin American and Caribbean leaders, presumably interacting
with many of them. A month later he led a Cuban delegation to Moscow
where he signed a joint defense agreement.

Alejandro's ascendancy begs a number of questions, all more relevant now
as Cuba and the United States pursue normalized relations. Does his
anti-American brief faithfully reflect his father's thinking? Is the
scion being used by Raúl and regime hardliners to help delineate a tough
negotiating stance? The aggressive speech Raúl delivered in Costa Rica
suggests it may be both.

A former Cuban official now in exile knew the son during his university
days. Alejandro was actually "disinterested in politics" then, "a
normal, quiet student." Married in the mid-1980s, he honeymooned in
Leningrad around the time of Mikhail Gorbachev's ascent to power. Like
his father, and probably guided by him, he seems to have gravitated in
his youth toward Soviet Marxism and Russia.

But is Col. Castro sufficiently talented and versatile to lead Cuba
after his father is gone? Would he have the support of key elites,
especially in the uniformed services and communist party?

I asked the former official who knew him to comment. He said he does not
expect Alejandro to rise much higher in the hierarchy: "to one star
general, yes; but not to the politburo."

In televised appearances in Athens, and an earlier one in Moscow,
Alejandro was forceful but scripted. In more than 30 minutes of
pontificating at the Acropolis he gave no hints of humor, nuance, wit,
or intellectual agility. He was mechanical, parroting propaganda bits he
seemed to have memorized. He spoke like a mid-twentieth century Marxist
didact.

The son of a now deceased hero of the revolution also knew Alejandro
well in Cuba. He has written from exile that "many in the military hate
him, others criticize him, and others mock him." If so, Cuba's dauphin
could have poor prospects once Raúl is unable to protect him from more
astute rivals.

BRIAN LATELL IS THE AUTHOR OF "CASTRO'S SECRETS: CUBAN INTELLIGENCE, THE
CIA, AND THE ASSASSINATION OF JOHN F. KENNEDY" (PALGRAVE MACMILLAN,
2013). A FORMER NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR LATIN AMERICA, HE IS
NOW A SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT THE INSTITUTE FOR CUBAN &
CUBAN-AMERICAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI.

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