Can the US-Cuba honeymoon last?

Can the US-Cuba honeymoon last?
Efforts to normalize diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba appear
to be progressing rapidly, but will that continue? Venezuela could hold
clues.
By Howard LaFranchi

Relations between the United States and Venezuela are not at a high
point. Shrill cries of Yankee imperialism and secret meddling are
emanating from Caracas. Accusations of human rights abuses and attacks
on democratic freedoms ring out from Washington. The US has slapped
sanctions on some Venezuelan officials. Both countries are reducing
embassy staffs as a part of the diplomatic duel.

By contrast, relations between the US and Cuba appear to be improving at
such a pace that President Obama says the two longtime adversaries could
announce an accord to open embassies in each other's capitals by next month.

But is the tension with Venezuela a harbinger of what is to come with
Cuba? The two countries, after all, have much in common, from shared
leftist political ideologies to fraught histories with the US. Can the
US and Cuba actually carve a new future out of their new attempts to
normalize relations, or are they likely to go down the same spiraling
path the US and Venezuela seem to be on?

Cuba's response to the ongoing US-Venezuela row begins to offer clues.
True, Fidel Castro – rarely heard from since he turned the reins of
power over to brother Raúl Castro in 2008 – emerged to blast the
"brutal" US measures and to praise Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's
stand against the imperial power as "brilliant and brave."

But to Latin America expert Michael Shifter, Cuba's response to US
sanctions actually seemed "restrained" and was issued "with very little
enthusiasm." It was, he and others say, a hint of how the US-Cuba
relationship might develop. Yes, there will be rhetorical attacks when
it suits Cuba's domestic political purposes. The Castros will not want
to throw the door open to change too quickly, and anti-imperialist
rhetoric has been is one of their most important tools in their efforts
to maintain control.

But with Venezuela's economic free-fall, the regional landscape is
changing for Cuba, in many ways forcing the Cuban government to accept
the necessity of opening to the US. The result could be occasional
thunderous denunciations of American imperialism undergirded by cautious
but pragmatic economic reform at home and dialogue with the US.

"I'm not sure there was ever a very great likelihood that things were
suddenly going to be smooth with Cuba, because at the end of the day
there are still profound differences between" Cuba and the US, says Mr.
Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington and an
adjunct professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University.

"But at the same time, the Cubans are acutely aware that Venezuela is in
an unrelenting crisis and not going to get better any time soon," he
says. "So while it's no surprise that Cuba would continue to come down
on the side of its regional friends, what it's not going to do is risk
the promise of the opening with the US over the Venezuela question."

US officials seemed to hint at this on Friday while previewing the third
round of US-Cuba talks, which got under way in Havana Monday. While the
US was "disappointed" at the Cuban government's reaction to "sovereign
actions of the United States Government," an official said, the US was
not "surprised" Cuba would defend an ally.

More important, the official added he was his confident that the
US-Venezuela row "will not have an impact on these [normalization]
conversations moving forward."

If anything, the end of a decade-and-a-half long "symbiotic
relationship" between Cuba and Venezuela, prompted by Venezuela's
economic tailspin and social chaos, is pushing Cuba closer to the US.

"The Cubans saw the environment changing, they knew that Venezuela
wasn't going to be able to play the bankrolling role anymore and they
didn't want the predicament again of being reliant on a failing country
– as they had been on the Soviet Union – so they decided to go full bore
on normalizing relations with the US," says Carl Meacham, director of
the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington.

But Raúl Castro made the decision to open to the US "reluctantly and
only out of necessity," Mr. Meacham says. That means relations are
likely to remain touchy.

In particular, Meacham expects the Cuban government to pull out the
ideological playbook it so successfully exported to Venezuela and
President Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez, whenever it senses
political and economic changes are coming too fast.

"What the Cuban leadership benefits from is a very slow transition, one
they can control, because if it goes too fast they won't be able to
control the pace of political and economic change," Meacham says. "So I
would expect them to use the anti-imperialist rhetoric to try to slow
down that process."

Indeed, he says Cuban officials have already made sharp references to
the US economic embargo or to Cuba's placement on the US list of state
sponsors of terrorism in public statements during the normalization talks.

"They're going to continue to use the rhetoric as a leverage point to
advance their objectives," he says.

Still, the glory days of railing against the US as the root of all the
country's troubles appear to be past, largely because they hold less
sway with Cubans.

"That kind of rhetoric has less and less resonance, it's not going to do
the trick anymore," says the Shifter, who was in Cuba in December when
normalization plans were announced. "It's very hard to find anyone for
whom that rhetoric has any echo these days."

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