Iván García, Translator: Adrian Rodriguez
Cuba's fate will be decided in 10 years. Or less. By that time Fidel
Castro, will be 95 years old. If he is still alive then, a nurse will
try to feed him with puree or apple compote with a spoon.
His brother Raul, around the same, will turn 90 years old and I don't
think he will have the strength to blow the birthday cake candles. If
God's grace lets them live, they will be two boring grandpas. A piece of
Cuban history prostrated in wheelchairs.
In 2021, probably before, those who rule the nation's destinies would
have been adjusting the itinerary on their political sextant. If the
ship still being captained by the olive-green entrepreneurs, Cuba will
be a mix of a virtual communism and state capitalism enthroned in the
principal economic sectors.
Maybe by that time Cuban intelligence will have designed an obedient and
nice opposition. And, not to be outdone, they will hold elections every
five years. There will be two or three political parties with pompous
names that will preach the same, but using different formats.
Of course, the military magnates will have the complete control of the
economy and the political life. They will let private enterprise and
will encourage and reward it with lower taxes. And the powerful
Cuban-Americans, will be compensated for the expropriated properties
during the first years of the revolution.
If by then, the commercial firms such as Bacardi, Fanjul and other
millionaires of Cuban origin would prefer to invest and leave aside
"those absurd ideas like democracy and human rights," the doors to doing
business in Cuba will be open.
Those annoying political activists and independent journalists who step
out of the script will have to be careful. When a honeymoon with the
Florida's wealthy fellows exists, the embargo will be a relic, and from
time to time the United States president will spend his vacation in
Varadero, it won't be necessary to set up political circuses against the
dissidents.
The trouble makers will end in a grave. They will be buried three meters
under, with a shot in the neck. Like in Mexico or Colombia. Nobody will
want to know who killed them.
Cuba is a State in liquidation sale. The subsidies are already being
dismantled and the creole mandarins now talk about profits and loss. To
work, damn it! It has been said in all assemblies.
On the economy side everything is figured out. The preservation of the
planned economy is to appease Fidel Castro, who hates the free market.
But there are areas, such as real estate, crude oil extraction or
tourism advocating for mixed enterprises.
Many generals-turned-businessmen, dressed in white guayaberas, will give
the welcome speeches at some golf tournaments. The black caddies will
return to carry the golf clubs and the cash registers will be ringing
with so many stunning greenbacks.
The Mariel seaport will be a goldmine. It will make Miami look small. In
the Chinese factories the people will work for two dollars a day. And
they will be satisfied. In a State enterprise they would only receive
fifty cents of a dollar.
So this, more or less, will be Cuba's outlook after ten years.
To put in place or not a two-headed system, combining the worst of the
capitalism along with the totalitarian society's repressive brutality,
will be left in the hands of a dissidence that must mature and gain
political conscience. Otherwise, they will be blatantly bought with
hard currency, in order to get a slice and keep their mouths shut.
The future looks ugly. I may be missing details. But not too many.
Translated by: Adrian Rodriguez
July 15 2011
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