Cuban communists headed for oblivion
By CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER
www.firmaspress.
An old and disappointed Cuban communist told me, during a recent brief
encounter in Madrid: "This Sixth Party Congress reminds me of the
atmosphere of sadness and nostalgia one breathes in those theaters that
present their last show before being demolished."
That's a good metaphor.
Fidel Castro's generation is now octogenarian. It's giving its farewell
performance. Fidel, 84, had his intestines removed in 2006, and Raúl,
almost 80, will leave the stage before long. He gave himself a
three-to-five-year period to transfer his authority in full and
facilitate a sort of generational relay "so the heirs may continue the
revolutionary task."
What does all that mean? Nothing, except to stay in power. Although
Cubans continue to repeat slogans, almost no one believes in
Marxism-Leninism, while the government tries to escape from the system's
chronic failures by creating a few spaces that might allow private
initiative to alleviate the disaster of collectivism. While they applaud
revolutionary mottos, young people call Marx "the little old man who
invented hunger."
The adults, in confidence, acknowledge this outlook. After 52 years of
dictatorship, without a hostile parliament or an opposition that could
hinder the government's work, the six basic elements that determine the
quality of life of any modern society have decayed into nightmares:
food, potable water, housing, electricity, communications and transport.
Raúl Castro, a realist who cannot understand why Cuban children can't
drink milk after the age of 7, is not unaware that his brother has been
the worst leader in the history of the republic, founded in 1902. In 56
years of capitalism, despite bad administrations, corruption, frequent
uprisings and periods of military dictatorship, the island became one of
the most prosperous countries in Latin America, and Havana one of the
most beautiful cities in the world. The public sector was mediocre or
bad, but civil society functioned reasonably well.
In contrast, in 52 years of communism, society became pauperized, and
the urban landscape took on the appearance of a bombed territory. The
communist-imposed public sector was terribly clumsy, infinitely worse
than the one in the capitalist era, and civil society (which Raúl is
trying to revive via artificial respiration) was cruelly crushed.
This is the melancholy diagnosis with which Cuban communists must
celebrate their Sixth Congress. Raúl has summoned a docile ruling circle
and asked it to support his timid reforms and legitimize the handpicked
functionaries. The idea is to appoint cadres under the age of 60, but
the ones who existed — Carlos Lage, Felipe Pérez Roque, Roberto Robaina,
Fernando Remírez de Estenoz — were destroyed by the rulers themselves.
Who will emerge as the heir presumptive? The name is whispered (though
no one is certain) of Marino Murillo, a 50-year-old economist, former
Army officer and former Minister of the Economy, despised by the
apparatchiks ("he's a lowly auditor, not an economist," I was told by an
especially shrewd observer), who today is in charge of disciplining the
Party so that, during this Sixth Congress, it will accept, without a
whimper, the changes proposed by Raúl. He is said to owe total
allegiance to the general-president and to be committed to retaining the
basic elements of the communist system, although eliminating paternalism.
Will he succeed? I doubt it. Raúl, with the aid of Murillo, his
ideological stepson, wants to build a socialism without subsidies and a
capitalism without markets. That's impossible.
That monstrosity has to be buried, the way it was done in Eastern
Europe. However, it is not improbable that, after the departure of the
Castros, the armed forces will hold on tightly to power for awhile, but
only until a spark is lit and we see in Cuba a violent finale.
Those who insist on impeding the natural evolution of history end up
provoking devastating catastrophes.
©Firmas Press
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/17/2169612/cuban-communists-headed-for-oblivion.html
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