Thursday, March 24, 2011

Obama unlikely to make new gestures to Cuba without action from Havana

Posted on Wednesday, 03.23.11

Obama unlikely to make new gestures to Cuba without action from Havana
By Andres By Oppenheimer
aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com

SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador -- For a man who prides himself on having
taken "unprecedented steps" to try to ease five-decade-old U.S. tensions
with Cuba, President Barack Obama did not look eager to make new
gestures toward the Cuban military regime when I interviewed him Tuesday.

The ball is in your court, he seemed to be telling Cuba.

Obama, who talked extensively about issues ranging from tensions with
Venezuela and Argentina to the pending U.S. free trade deals with Panama
and Colombia, said he has made some of the most significant changes in
U.S. policy to Cuba in decades but the Cuban leadership has not
responded in kind.

"We have expanded remittances, we expanded travel, we have sent a strong
signal to the Cuban people," Obama said. "The Cuban government made some
gestures about releasing political prisoners and starting some
market-based economies with small business opportunities. (But) we
haven't seen as much follow-through as we would like."

Obama said that Cuban authorities must take some "meaningful actions,"
but was not specific when I asked what would be the minimum measures
Cuba should take to improve bilateral ties.

Obama did not mention the case of Alan Gross, the U.S. contractor who
was sentenced to 15 years in prison this month for taking telephone
equipment to Cuba, but other U.S. officials have asked for his immediate
release in recent days.

On the pending U.S. free trade deals with Colombia and Panama, I asked
Obama whether he sees a better than 50 percent chance that he will send
them to Congress for a vote this year.

"I won't put a number on it, but I am very interested in getting those
deals done," he said.

But this year? I insisted. Republicans are accusing Obama of dragging
his feet on both deals because of resistance from U.S. labor unions
whose support Obama will need to be re-elected next year.

"I am sending my team to Colombia and Panama to see how we can quickly
resolve any final differences before we put them to Congress," he said.

This year?, I insisted once again.

"Whenever you put a timetable, people complain if it happens even a week
after your deadline, so I try to avoid those numbers," he said.

My translation: Obama is not ready to spend much political capital on
the two pending free trade deals with Latin America, at least not yet.
And if he doesn't do it this year, it's not likely to happen during an
election year in 2012.

On reports that Venezuela is secretly helping Iran obtain uranium in
violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions aimed at
stopping Iran's nuclear weapons program, I asked Obama whether he is
concerned about this issue, and to what extent.

"We take non-proliferation very seriously," Obama said. "I wouldn't make
categorical statements to you about these issues, but we are concerned
that international law, international resolutions, are observed, and we
want to make sure that they are observed."

My translation: Obama has been told by his top aides that recent
allegations by top Republicans in Congress that Venezuela actively is
helping Iran circumvent U.N. sanctions for its nuclear program are
politically-motivated, and that there is no smoking gun yet tying
Venezuela to Iran's nuclear weapons program.

On the recent U.S. diplomatic row with Argentina over the South American
government's decision to seize equipment from a U.S. Air Force cargo
plane that had landed there for a joint exercise, I asked Obama whether
his White House spokesman had over-reacted when he described the
incident as "serious," and whether the whole issue has already been solved.

"No," Obama responded. "It is serious in the sense that Argentina
historically has been a friend and a partner of the United States. They
have some of our communications equipment. There is no reason not to
return it. And next time I see President (Cristina Fernández de)
Kirchner, I will mention, 'Can we get our equipment back?' But it's not
going to be a defining aspect of the U.S.-Argentine relationship."

My translation: Obama sees the Argentine government's decision to seize
the U.S. equipment as a gross electoral propaganda move by Fernández de
Kirchner's government to capitalize on anti-American sentiment in that
country in anticipation of this year's presidential elections.

In my next column, Obama's responses to my questions about his claims
that he is starting "a new era of partnership" with Latin America, and
his views about what the United States and Latin America should do to
improve their education levels and become more competitive with China
and other Asian countries.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/23/2130457/obama-unlikely-to-make-new-gestures.html

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