Monday, September 13, 2010

Castro's Return Spells Doom For Cuba

Foreign Policy:
Castro's Return Spells Doom For Cuba
by Jose R. Cardenas

Former Cuban President Fidel Castro gives a speech at Havana's
University. He has made a number of public appearances lately, most
notably an interview with the The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg.
September 13, 2010

Jose R. Cardenas is an associate with the consulting firm
VisionAmericas, He served in senior positions in the Bush administration
including in the U.S. Department of State, the National Security
Council, and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Well, he's back. Four years after ceding power to younger brother Raul,
Fidel Castro is re-commanding the spotlight inside Cuba and regaling
witting foreign visitors with a series of provocative quotes that are
causing headlines around the world. In other words, the regime's plan is
working like a charm.

While Castro's return may be furrowing the brow of many a
"Cubanologist," its meaning isn't hard to figure out: It is an act of
desperation by a ruling clique unable to control a fast-moving chain of
events and looking to shore up a wobbling regime facing unprecedented
threats.

From the death of dissident Orlando Zapata Tamayo on a hunger strike
(which sparked other hunger strikes by incarcerated human rights
activists), to the courageous and undaunted Ladies in White weekly
demonstrations in Havana, to desperately using the Catholic Church to
broker the release of other jailed dissidents (which failed as a public
relations ploy when the released were shipped off to exile in Spain),
the brief reign of Raul Castro has been a fiasco for those vested in the
regime.

Not only were events drawing heightened international scrutiny of human
rights in Cuba, they were also emboldening Cuban dissidents to publicly
challenge the very foundations of Cuba's police state like never before.

The hapless Raul also displayed a marked incapacity to institute any
meaningful economic reforms to save the Cuban economy from its current
tailspin. In addition, the hoped-for salvation — that the Obama
administration would open the gates to U.S. tourist travel to Cuba —
shows no sign of happening anytime soon.

All this, coupled with Castro's own return from death's door, compelled
the return of the Old Man to set things "right." His return conveys a
message to both domestic and foreign audiences. For the Cuban people,
the sight of Castro alone bedecked again in his military fatigues is
meant to cow them, embodying a simple message: give up any expectations
that any changes are afoot in Cuba. Things are going right back to the
way they were when he left power. There will be no freedoms, no hope, no
future; time to go on home.

To the international audience, the message is one of diversion, an
attempt to change the subject from the very negative (and deserved)
narrative of the past year. The regime knew that international media
coverage of Castro's return would step all over the activities of Cuba's
dissidents and human rights activists. Throw in a spot of Castro
dolphin-watching with a pair of credulous foreign guests and the ruse is
complete. All is well, indeed.

It remains to be seen what impact the return of Fidel Castro will
ultimately have in boosting the regime's declining fortunes. What is
certain is that there is no shortage of outside actors willing to aid
and abet this last gasp of the regime to hold things together.
Fortunately, to date, this does not include the Obama administration,
which has declined to play the role countless policy critics are
attempting to assign it. It is good that they remember that Cuba's
future lies with those Cubans advocating for something better for their
countrymen; not with a fading wraith from a bygone era.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129825581

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