In My Opinion
Spain may change tone on Latin America
By Andres Oppenheimer
aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com
MADRID -- The widely expected victory of the center-right People's Party
in Spain's next presidential elections is drawing growing attention to
statements by party officials that they plan to change this country's
foreign policy, and become much more critical of Cuba, Venezuela and
other authoritarian regimes.
If that happens, it would make a big difference in the Latin America
diplomatic arena. Despite its economic crisis, Spain is a major investor
in Latin America, and a leader on Latin American initiatives within the
27-country European Union.
But will the PP win, and will it change Spain's foreign policy? Let's
look at the facts. A June 5 poll by the daily El País shows that PP
leader Mariano Rajoy's party leads by a record 14 percent in voters'
preferences over its nearest rival. In the May municipal elections, the
PP won by nearly 8 percent of the vote.
On a week-long visit here, I've found the country as beautiful as ever —
Madrid's streets are clean, and sidewalk cafes are teeming with patrons
until the wee hours — despite the economic crisis that has resulted in
20 percent unemployment. But in conversations with friends across the
political spectrum, widespread disenchantment with the current
government of Socialist Party leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is
evident. Few doubt that Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister.
Rather than a symptom of Rajoy's popularity — he has zero charisma — the
polls reflect widespread disappointment with Zapatero and his party.
According to a June 28 editorial by the daily El Mundo, Zapatero's "has
been the worse government the nation has had in thirty years of democracy."
Elections are scheduled for March 2012, but the conventional wisdom here
is that — if things deteriorate further — they could be held as early as
November.
Congressman Gustavo de Arístegui, the People's Party congressional
spokesman on foreign affairs, told me that Zapatero's government has
been "absolutely complacent with the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes,"
because "the president's foreign policy has been aimed at attracting
votes from the extreme leftist wing of the Socialist Party."
By comparison, if the People's Party wins the next elections, "we will
start a firm, demanding dialogue, without breaking relations" with Cuba,
Venezuela and other countries that violate democratic rights, he said.
Spain's foreign policy "should have among its key guidelines the
promotion of democracy, the rule of law, and human rights," he added.
Regarding Cuba, for instance, the People's Party would not support
Spain's current demand to the European Union that it drop its so-called
"common position" linking an improvement in ties to concrete steps
toward a political opening on the island, he said.
In addition, a People's Party government would be much more aggressive
in defending the rights of Spanish companies in Latin America, he said.
"When some Spanish companies have had problems in Argentina, Nicaragua
and Venezuela, the Spanish government has looked the other way," he
said. "Spain must defend its companies. There are 8 million Spaniards in
Spain's stock market, and the government cannot ignore their interests."
But Carlos Malamud, a Latin America analyst with Spain's Royal El Cano
Institute, a Madrid-based think tank, doubts there will be much change
in Spain's foreign policy. "Beyond differences in rhetoric, there will
be continuity, because Spain has state policies, and interests," he said.
My opinion: Spain has already begun changing its foreign policy rhetoric
under the current government, since the appointment late last year of
Trinidad Jimenez as foreign minister.
Unlike her predecessor Miguel Angel Moratinos, who came across as an
apologist for Cuba's military dictatorship, Jimenez has built bridges
with human and civil rights groups. Having interviewed both , I found
Jimenez to be much more open-minded than Moratinos.
Also, even if Spain shifts to the right, Rajoy will want to
differentiate himself from former right-of-center Prime Minister Jose
María Aznar, whose embrace of George W. Bush's ill-fated invasion of
Iraq does not sit well with most Spaniards.
The good news is that Spain's return to a more principled foreign policy
— in the tradition of former Socialist President Felipe Gonzalez — has
already begun, and is likely to intensify no matter who wins the next
elections.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/06/2302804/spain-may-change-tone-on-latin.html
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